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How Groupon is Losing $1,117,808 Every Single Day

 

Note: This is the first in our "They're leaving money on the table" series, where we actually test out and find which companies are leaving an enormous amount of cash on the table through improper pricing. Let us know who we should test next by emailing LeakingRevenue@PriceIntelligently.com.

Although Wall Street and a lot of the tech press love to hate on Groupon, I'm a huge fan. They developed such a simple, yet powerful idea, and there's nowhere on the internet where I can find a deal on everything from a night out on the town to an oil change. Well, except for the endless barrage of other daily deal sites that have spawned in Groupon's wake. With a concept so novel that none us thought of it (Group + Coupons = Group Coupon or Groupon), they took the internet by storm in 2008, turned down a $5.3 billion offer from Google in 2010, and limped through a 2011 IPO into 2012 trying to figure out proper unit economics for profitability

While we're rooting for Groupon to figure their issues out, we unfortunately found a huge chink in their already lightening armor that goes beyond local business relations or user acquisition: their color scheme. Kidding. We're a pricing blog. Of course, we wouldn't write an article unless it was their pricing. Through our study, we've discovered that Groupon is losing roughly $1,117,808 per day (or $408 million/year), and that's a conservative estimate. Sounds absurd right? Well, let's walk you through our study, show you the facts and calculations, before illuminating some ways you can avoid falling into a similar trap.  

A Quick Overview of Groupon's Revenue Model, Including Its Quirks

Groupon's revenue model is pretty simple. The basic premise is that they take a local business (such as a restaurant), cobble together a deal ($25 for $50 worth of food), sell the deal (yum!), and then split the sale in some proportion ($12.50 to Groupon and $12.50 to the merchant). The exact proportion varies per deal, but we've seen the standard in our research be around a 50/50 split.

Why would anyone agree to such a deal? Well, Groupon pitches their flock of daily dealers as a method for not only infusing your business with customers who may not come in without an extra nudge, but as a way to increase customer retention and repeat customer rates. After all, retailers don't win unless their doors are revolving. Many retailers question the validity in Groupon's retention and loyalty averages with many reports stating those claiming Groupon's deals are simply bargain hunters who refuse to come back to the establishment, but regardless, people are still buying (thousands per day) and it appears Groupon is working hard to turn their retention and repeat rate averages around.   

Our Study: Testing Groupon Subscriber's Price Sensitivity

In our analysis, we chose to focus on two core deals that we consistently see on Groupon, a meal at a mid-tier restaurant and a 5 pack of yoga classes. There are dozens of other categories of deals we see on Groupon (auto detailing, electronics, fun outings and endless Zoom whitening treatments), but since the very beginning there has been some variation of a meal and a fitness offering. Typically, we'd do a pricing study directly on the product, but remember the whole point of going to Groupon is to get a deal. As such, our analysis focused on pricing out the item in context of being a Groupon. In other words, knowing that the deal is worth $50, how much are target customers willing to pay for the deal? Here are screenshots of the two deals we analyzed: 

Restaurant Groupon - $25 for $50 at The Elephant Walk

describe the image

Fitness Groupon - $35 for $70 of Yoga Classes

yogogroupon

Briefly: How our software works

Specifically, without getting too deep into our software (you can hear the pitch on the phone or website if you'd like), we utilized our value based pricing technology that gets to the heart of willingness to pay by collecting data directly from the customer. For our software to work, we ask a target customer a few core questions, crunch that data through our algorithm, and then spit out the charts you see below. We have more on validity checking and the pricing process, but here's some example output from a fun pricing study we did comparing the price of time with Dharmesh Shah or Jason Calcanis:     

describe the imagedescribe the image

Testing Willingness to pay amongst Groupon Customers for Groupon deals

For the Groupon studies we quite literally took the deals right off the website and told the respondent that they were pricing a daily deal from Groupon with a value of $X, where $X was the strike out price on the deal. For example, for the deal below, we showed respondents the deal, including all the fine print and features, and told them that the deal was for $50 at The Elephant Walk. We obviously hid the Groupon sale price and discount percentage. 

grouponpricing

We then priced the deal out and found the willingness to pay. For respondents, we used one of our panel partners to find individuals who: 1. have a Groupon account, 2. purchased a daily deal in the past two weeks, and 3. self identified as being interested in the deal (i.e.. said "Yes" to "Would you be interested in a deal from a Cambodian/French restaurant?"). Essentially, we wanted to make sure these folks were in the target demographic.   

Groupon is leaving a lot of cash on the table

As we already gave away above, they're underpricing and losing a ton of cash. Here are the results for each of the studies:     

Restaurant Groupon

  Current Price Optimal Price Band IPP (Median Price Point) % increase
Restaurant Groupon $25 for $50 $26.96 - $39.38 $36.24 +44%

Screenshot 2 20 13 2 29 AM resized 600

Fitness Groupon 

  Current Price Optimal Price Band IPP (Median Price Point) % increase
Fitness Groupon $35 for $75 $51.71 - $59.60 $56.38 +61%

yogagrouponpricing 

Just a quick note: IPP stands for Indifference Price Point, and is where half the respondents believed the item was expensive and half believe it inexpensive. The point is a phenomenal one to look at, because it serves as the middle point of the data, allowing you to compare across different campaigns and studies.   

To summarize the above, we found that at least for these two deals Groupon could raise the actual sale price by over 40% and still bring in the bacon. 

How does this equate to such big yearly and daily losses?

Now to get to the big numbers we quoted above we did some digging. In 2011, Groupon sold over 170 million deals (PDF) with an average amount of revenue per deal of about $12 (we say about, because we could only find the average for the first three quarters of 2011). If Groupon increased that average revenue per deal by 20% (we're being really conservative here and not going for the whole 44-61%) they could bring in an additional $2.40 per deal, which equates to an additional $408 million, or $1,117,808 million per day. That's a lot of cold hard cash for everyone, just by being smarter about the structure and price point of their deals.  

Now admittedly, there are a lot of additional factors at work here, including the scale of Groupon offerings, the segmentation of each deal (different markets = different price sensitivities), the nuances of Groupon's accounting, and the like. Yet, the big lesson staring us all in the face is that Groupon is leaving cash on the table by not providing their business customers with insight into how to structure the pricing of their deals and what the delta should be between their list value and strikeout price.   

Groupon can easily close their cash gaps

From an investment point of view, this data should be startling, because even leaving $100 million on the table at a company that's been struggling to meet earnings and losing day in and day out in the Wall Street game would be a lot of cash, let alone $408 million. Plus, in a business that struggles to get beyond barrier to entry and cost of user acquisition issues, there's clearly a more innate, easily adjustable solution to maximizing the revenue out of the volume of deals Groupon prints on a daily basis. I'm not sure what pricing analysis Groupon currently does, if any, but from reading numerous accounts of small business owners using Groupon, it appears they put a lot of the deal structure in the hands of the actual business with only light guidance from the sales rep and some historical data. Clearly, something needs to change.

For you, this data should be indicating that you need to take pricing seriously or at the very least rethink your pricing process. Think about how you're currently pricing, how you can determine your customer base's willingness to pay, and how you can bring some data into the mix. A process and data. That's all you need.

To learn more, check out our Pricing Strategy ebook, our Pricing Page Bootcamp (it’s free!), or learn more about our price optimization software and solutions. We're here to help!

 

Comments

The problem in your logic is that the whole point of groupon was to get mega deals and most people expect around a 40-60% deal, plus with so many competitors they need to have the best to keep their subscribers. Also, where you say they're losing money, I believe they're keeping and satisfying customers. If groupons started going up 15-20% across the board, they might see a lot of user attrition. But that's just my opinion.
Posted @ Wednesday, February 20, 2013 9:51 AM by Patrick Curl
Patrick, 
 
Great point. I think that Groupon definitely attracts a large user base through deep discounts, but they make a lot of concessions on deals when they don't necessarily need to (70-90% off) or 50% off a deal that will clearly sell no matter the depth of the discount (Starbucks cards, etc.).  
 
The subtext here is that as they get bigger and bigger and drive out competition, they'll need to focus on the nuances of their pricing strategy for expansion. Hell, they should probably start focusing on it now, rather than placing it in the hands of what the sales team thinks they can get out of a particular merchant. This can involve experimenting with the price level, the delta between the value and the sales prices, and even the margins they received versus the merchant.  
 
Patrick
Posted @ Wednesday, February 20, 2013 10:19 AM by Patrick
Patrick, why isn't that covered by the methodology, where they're asked 'do you think this Groupon offer is a good deal or not'?  
 
They're told it's a Groupon thing ("For the Groupon studies we quite literally took the deals right off the website and told the respondent that they were pricing a daily deal from Groupon with a value of $X, where $X was the strike out price on the deal."). So any 'Groupon discount' expectation should already be applied.
Posted @ Wednesday, February 20, 2013 10:24 AM by gwern
Gwern, 
 
I'm a little confused as to what you're exactly asking. We were focused on the price sensitivity side of things with the "Would you be interested in this deal?" simply being a qualification question for the respondents.  
 
That being said, they know there's going to be a discount, which is why none of the data came back at above the deal's value. As such, what's the range of discounts that Groupon could offer to maximize their revenue is the big question.  
 
Patrick
Posted @ Wednesday, February 20, 2013 11:02 AM by Patrick
Patrick, I was asking the *other* Patrick (the first commenter) why the discount was not already being taken into account (when, as you, the second Patrick, point out that the graph sure looks like it and the people asked were told that it would be discounted).
Posted @ Wednesday, February 20, 2013 12:12 PM by gwern
My thinking is that say Groupon does move from a 50% to 40% on a number of groupons and loses say 10% of sales (there will be a small subsect of people who will not buy unless its 50%, or good enough for them) Will the added profit from the price increase out-weigh the lost # sold.  
 
From a business using Groupon it would be better though as they would earn a little more per sale on the deal, but will have less new customers as a result - which could also be a plus as some businesses sell way more than they expect to, and a lot of the sales cause them to initially suffer a loss rather than a gain in an attempt to find new customers for future sales.
Posted @ Wednesday, February 20, 2013 12:18 PM by Patrick Curl
Gwern, 
 
Cool. Was confused. :) 
 
Patrick: This is where proper revenue modeling comes in. They'd need to test where the best movement would occur, but if you look at the price sensitivity curves (especially for the restaurant) the estimated sales lost are minimal for a wide array of prices. To properly vet this we'd have to do more segments though, which would require access to Groupon's list and database information. We could do it externally, but the costs would exceed the benefits of a good blog post. :) 
 
Patrick
Posted @ Wednesday, February 20, 2013 12:29 PM by Patrick Campbell
Patrick, apologies for the tangential question but this seems rather important.  
 
Could you please comment on this blog post by Dr. Nico Peruzzi which shows that the typical vW analysis is done incorrectly: 
 
http://orconsulting.com/blog/?p=133 
 
thank you and look fwd to reading your answer
Posted @ Wednesday, February 20, 2013 1:18 PM by Robert
Happy to comment. Traditional VW is definitely misused for a number of reasons, including the lack of inversion that Dr. Peruzzi alludes to. For our software, we've actually started digging into the base of VW and modifying it in a manner to not only properly display these ranges, but also to handle more validity checking when administered in the online space. We're also working on throwing out outliers through traditional outlier checking and cluster analysis of the data that comes in. What's great is that this has opened up doors into overlaying statistical significance on the model, where the range can be adjusted with equal adjustments in confidence interval.  
 
To sum this up, traditional VW is far from a silver bullet, but through the above improvements and proper implementation (segmentation, waves of testing, etc.) you begin to decrease the size of the true range significantly. There will definitely always be some art in pricing, as long as you're focused on goods that aren't wholly market driven like a commodity, but that's why our mission is to get closer and closer to a set it and forget it approach as possible.
Posted @ Wednesday, February 20, 2013 1:47 PM by Patrick
Interesting analysis and discussion, thank you Patrick. 
 
How would the IPP react to the inclusion of participants that did not necessarily answer yes to question 3 - "self identified as being interested in the deal"? Part of the attraction to offering a group coupon is garnering customers who would not normally be interested in a particular offering but do so because of the deal. I would guess it would regress closer to the standard 50% deal. Regardless, it does seem like using a value based pricing method would be superior to a flat 50% deal in terms of revenue generation and long term viability.
Posted @ Thursday, February 21, 2013 8:54 AM by Trevor Wise
Huge point, Trevor. We'd have to ask a bit more specifically to get to the core of how this impacts IPP. The way we viewed that question was to just make sure they weren't repulsed by the deal, such as Cambodian food or yoga. Yet, I do feel like we may have lost some folks based on the wording of "interested." 
 
That being said, I don't know if the IPP would shift, as much as the graphs would flatten more to provide more ambiguity to the price range. Great question though, and something to consider for next time!
Posted @ Thursday, February 21, 2013 11:58 AM by Patrick Campbell
I got ripped off the first time I used it, which was also the last time.
Posted @ Thursday, February 21, 2013 6:16 PM by DONNA MARTIN
At the beginning of this post, you suggest that Groupon splits after-coupon revenue with merchants, approx. 50/50. That seems reasonable to me.  
 
Question, please: I followed your reasoning and assumptions, but was uncertain if your final results were after the merchant split, or prior. Specifically, was the projected increase of $2.40 per deal due to a 20% higher strike price before the split with the merchant? If so, the net benefit to Groupon would be $1.20 per deal, or a possible annual revenue increase of $204 mil per yr, instead of $408 mil. That is still significant! 
 
Critique time  
Your post alluded to my primary concern. I'm thinking of the additional expense involved in implementing revenue modeling for Groupon. As you said, Groupon is not an pure commodity business. It may be close enough, I don't know. To successfully implement a consistent revenue model approach would require tighter coordination, between salespeople in the field and Groupon HQ. That should be possible. 
 
In general, I agree with your premise. Revenue modeling, based on price sensitivity analysis, is preferable than a one-size-fits-all, (50% heuristic) over every markets, deal type, location etc.  
 
Revenue modeling works well with something like airline fares, due to reservation systems, and a very structured organization. Groupon's strength is its "grassroots" sales network that directly works with (often small) business owners. That becomes a weakness in the context of trying to implement a company-wide, analytically driven pricing methodology, I suspect. 
 
* Sorry for my verbosity. I enjoyed reading your post, much more than I expected! That's probably because it reminds me of revenue modeling, as I've done in the past. Thank you!
Posted @ Friday, February 22, 2013 4:48 AM by Ellie Kesselman
I have used Groupon many times for local businesses. Usually for those businesses I always frequent. There have been many local businesses who have folded after placing deals with groupon. They would get a huge influx of business but at a 50% discount. It skews the profit margin and they were worse off at the end.
Posted @ Friday, February 22, 2013 7:25 AM by Greg Parker
Groupon could do like priceline and allow bidding... higher prices might be the natural outcome based on this article's research; the interactivity of such a feature would engage the user more and ensure more follow-through to sales.
Posted @ Sunday, February 24, 2013 10:33 PM by paul
That is an awesome explanation on what is Groupon is all about. A lot of people does not know this and they are fixed into believing that Groupon is all about deals.
Posted @ Tuesday, March 19, 2013 8:00 AM by krish kash
"We then priced the deal out and found the willingness to pay. For respondents, we used one of our panel partners to find individuals who: 1. have a Groupon account, 2. purchased a daily deal in the past two weeks, and 3. self identified as being interested in the deal (i.e.. said "Yes" to "Would you be interested in a deal from a Cambodian/French restaurant?"). Essentially, we wanted to make sure these folks were in the target demographic.".. 
 
But you picked people already interested in buying a French Cambodian deal. What about people who otherwise would have never been interested in it, but are now because of the heavy discount. I think this is important because their WTP will be lower than WTP for people who are already interested in a French cambodian deal.,
Posted @ Tuesday, March 26, 2013 11:50 AM by Karan
Nice article Patrick. 
 
Two points: 
1 I agree with the feedback some have given that offers such as Groupon attract only bargain hunters and achieve very small repeat full-price trade. I'd be interested to know if targeting prices more closely would change this or would just be a way of making more from these frugal/cheap customers? 
2 Did you inform Groupon of this study before publishing? If I was them I'd have liked to have heard the news privately and made use of the information positively. 
 
Keep up the interesting writing, 
 
Niall
Posted @ Saturday, May 04, 2013 8:04 PM by Niall
I don't believe groupon is losing in every single day. now a days its marketing were increasing, You can see other Groupon clone websites and follow the money to start trading the same strategy.
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